Pick who you will choose to believe, but International Monetary Fund economist Prakash Loungani has predicted that home prices will fall much farther and for much longer (you can read the full article here).
The latest boom he says, has been so much bigger than the previous one that it’s logical to anticipate an even more brutal downturn. He quotes shocking figures – a 113 per cent surge in house prices over the last ten years compared with the 39 per cent average price increase in the last boom.
So what has gone up must come down, right?
And I really hope he is right.
The prospect of ever-increasing house prices is frightening – and it will only exacerbate the rich poor divide, even here in Australia. How many more people are we going to price out of a home?
Social housing is in short supply – or should I say viable social housing is in short supply. A lot of existing homes need renewing, if not torn down and rebuilt altogether, and we also have to be mindful of building ghettos or pockets of disadvantage. But I don’t think the issue can be resolved by simply providing more social housing. The deeper issues include the stigma that comes with living in social housing, the resignation and resentment at never being able to afford private rental, let alone home ownership. How are we going to help lift people out of poverty and disadvantage?
According to Mr Loungani, house prices in OECD countries in 2009 were substantially out of whack with rents and incomes in those countries, compared to average values from 1970 to 2000.
In the long run, incomes and rents will act as weights on home prices, bringing them back to earth, he said.
I’m inclined to agree. It’s all going to break down somewhere, when things become unsustainable not just for the disadvantaged, but everyday folk who are scraping by with little more than an honest living.
Young people are staying with their parents longer, and for those whose parents cannot help chip in for a home deposit, it would mean an eternity of saving up. Australia’s market outlook has been pretty cheerful compared to the chaos surrounding it, but the same optimism has not trickled down when it comes to spending on wages and employment. I think businesses are still cautious, and would prefer to operate prudently, keeping their workforce lean.
The crash – I guess it’s just s matter of when? And in the meantime, what do we do? Buy? Or hold out?